2008熊市风云录 之四

bail out于是乎成了年末最响彻云霄的字眼，美国此时无比热情地想拥抱nationalism。

虽然牛军在九月OE日，9月19，最后一刻阻止了崩盘的发生。命运终究要来，10月6日市场大幅跳低开，此gap立下未来几年，不可跨越的旗杆。当日，djia破万点，两日后，SP500 跌下1000点大关。其后10月10日，VIX指数攀上80高峰，历史上除了崩盘日120＋之外第二高，市场极度恐慌。所谓物极必反，是日市场即大幅反转，连接两日内sp500暴力升200点，跃升平时大约两年的幅度，令人神往。

全球关键利率指标的伦敦银行同业拆息LIBOR， TED Spread纷纷高升，明确表明问题根本正是银行缩减银根，不肯借贷。同时导致bond market脱离常规，WMT也要卖出8％的bond来收集资金用作流通，更证明的此次金融危机早已向实体经济蔓延。carry trader此时亦不好受。JPY YEN对美元大幅上涨，就算连同美元上升也不在话下，美国股市卖压前所未有的沉重。EURO被屠杀至1.2左右的地位，早无当初气吞天下的气概。

股神warren buffet期间注资GS和GE，并与电视上宣称最恐慌已过，回归价值投资正是时候。市场有人抱怀疑态度，但更多受到鼓舞，市场略有投资行为。10月28日，市场宣称hedge fund redemption selling pressure 已过，再次低量rally超过38。2％ fibonacci level。11月4日，正是高潮迭起之际，美国大选，Mr. obama当选美国第44届总统。在市场一般常见的四种price/volume关系中，低量拉升是最bearish的一种。果不其然，市场11月5日应声大跌。直接导致11月21日，OE日，是2008年一年中最黑暗的历史。sp500跌过2000年nasdaq泡沫低点，下探740点，预示此次根本不是nasdaq所能媲美，nasdaq同样亦告破位，djia，以1点守住。世人终于明白这次所面对的，也许只有1929大萧条可以相提并论。

OE后，借thinksgiving以及santa rally东风，市场暂时稳定下来。12月fed day，ben bernake将fed rate降到0.25，历史最低，可称破釜沉舟之举。以史为镜，其实每次破位一个重要的支撑，都有可观的rally伴随，聪明人只是知道这个点既然破了，就退无可守，必将重临。

在三大银行中BAC与JPM四出收购便宜资产的同时，可疑之处正是C，静静的站在漩涡之外。在唯一一次企图收购WM中还败给比其弱小的对手WFC，败像明显，而后此君辞别20，头也不回的向南走，再见沙特骆驼王子30元注资1年后，最低只剩得3元的零头，感叹莫名。传说中BAC即将步其后尘，拭目以待。

2008最后的岁月，detroit big 3成了最后的头条。三大汽车厂陷入困境，无以为继，同样厚颜无度要求政府bail out。美国人高傲的汽车产业终于无法在猖狂下去，无耻的UAW只管要钱，低下的生产率和过时的设计更是世界乃至美国人自己背叛自己的原因。但他们夹天子令诸侯，美国政府无法眼看超过百万人失业，唯有疯狂印刷美元，保住最后的那一点希望。

风卷残云中，完成自30年代大萧条以来，80年内单年度最大跌幅的神话，亦是大萧条后，跌得最凶猛的熊市。

NYK, the nyse financial index.

NYK, the nyse finanical index, a subset of the NYSE Composite Index, is a float-adjusted market cap weighted index including NYSE-listed common stocks that are classified according to the Dow Jones Global Classification System. The index was developed with a base value of 5000 as of December 31st, 2002, that s also what you can found in stockcharts.com, all datas start from Jan 1st, 2003.

but what happen before 2003? historical data shows the old data is approximate 1/10 of the new updated system.

historical data


weekly data after 2003


for everybody loves to compare this cedit crisis to the 81~83 one, we havnt back there yet!

QQQQ:SPY

Qs outperforms SPY again, short term pull back is needed for further intermediate upside. RSI, MACD at a resistant level, stockRSI cant stay overbought forever.

2008熊市风云录 之三

在明显的操纵下，crude oil从147瀑布跌下，毅然得义无反顾，4个月后只剩1/3不到。iphone 3G登场，AAPL带领nasdaq跳上最后的华尔兹，准备华丽谢幕。有山歌为证，“那些天上飞的肥猪啊。。啊。。”。GOOG, AAPL全部都在走很标准的topping形态，离死不远矣。有识之士亦以察觉，nasdaq“让领导先走！”的号召是那样响亮，与去年攀顶时的伎俩一般无二，即，在用蓝筹支撑大盘指数后，再次用小盘股抬轿，让蓝筹逃离，正是孙子兵法无处不在的明证之一。其实从年初开始，nasdaq已经outperform SP500, 从2000年nasdaq泡沫来看，当nasdaq lead SP500，正是市场climax run的最后步骤。9月开始，RIMM，AAPL，AMZN等俗称nasdaq四大金刚的保护神，纷纷暴力破位，引领nasdaq领跌大市。

一子错，满盘落索。

2008年9月，戊子年，辛酉月，注定是这个世纪最不平凡的月份之一。实在是为了Mr. Paulson企图维护资本市场的自由亦或是其他原因，概莫能知。9月8日，Mr. Paulson决定讲两房FNM与FRE收归国库，同时回归的，是在二战后，再次将全国房屋借贷纳入国家机器的监管内。9月12日，NYUPV:NYDNV=1:20，TICK录得低于－2000的惊人数字，明示全是抛盘，无人接货。市场恐慌之极，市场大幅开低后神奇走高，各界豪赌LEH将上演<>，竟然高收。9月15日，主导接近两百年风云，LEH终于在credit crisis和high leverage asset holding面前很黯然，很销魂地倒下，Mr. Paulson冷眼视之，弃如破履。同日, MER将自己卖身给了BAC。环顾花街，五大投行已去其三，这个行业的消失，带来的亦是标志性的恐慌。一日之隔，9月16日，Mr. Paulson伙同Mr. Bernake斥资85B bail out AIG，全球最大的保险集团。9月26日，WM主演了美国276年历史上最大的银行破产案后，股价12 cent，以后迷般消失在人们的面前。

如若要循迹而索，AIG作为DOW 30蓝筹，破产乃是“不可承受之重”，而WM迷般的破产以及后来WFC和C两雄相争其肉黑幕背后，亦是肩负了保护FDIC如履薄冰的asset的重任。Mr. Greenspan走上屏幕，“We thought we had it right, but things got out of control...It’s my fault. The system was a stupid failure.”，全球为其坦白而皆静默无言。

9月18日，全球同步救市，史上第一遭。9月19日，谣言传说中带有神话色彩，Mr. paulson 700 Billion bail out plan出炉，为此其后还曾还跪倒在众院，黯然泪下，有机会获得年度oscar最佳男主角提名。 唯有事与愿违，9月29日，推销多时的bailout plan被众院以228对205票否决，当日，djia狂跌777点，nasdaq下跌9.14％，SP500录得8.81％跌幅。历史再一次定格在那天，红色的数字是那么耀眼。即便随后礼拜5，参院通过后众院再次投票得以通过，伤害已经造成，再也无法挽回。Mr.paulson形容干枯，沙哑的声音，“We really need this 700 billion.”，已成绝唱。

big picture

S&P regression trend (adjusted with inflation)

anyone think we have done with the worst, bump ur head on the wall, hard one.



Jobless number comparison

it shows 81~83 is the worst in the past 40 yrs, but 2009 is yet to come, and to be honest, i think that jobless number is fully cooked...(sweet...)



chart from bloomberg.

the worst inauguration day on stock market in 100 yrs. if Mr. Barack "the hope" Obama is anywhere near Franklin Roosevelt, could this happen?



from thebigpicture

RIMM's round bottom?

chart tells everythings.

volumes arent support that cup & handle.

daytrade 2009-01-15

prefect sample of tick and pp.

2008熊市风云录 之二

原文再续，书接上一回。

上回说道牛军冲200 dailly MA成功，牛不醉人人自醉，当人皆以为大市健康，新高可期时。飞刀，又见飞刀。

流火五六月，市况急转而下，熊军不能忍受200 daily MA被夺，决意反攻。美国最大housing mortagage lender CFC率先倒塌，完成被BAC收购的宿命。面对六月底，一年两度的财经界最重要结数日，所有fiancial机构打开不愿面对的账簿，汗如雨下。在油价高企严重伤害两大油蓝筹的营运margin和DJ tran指数，以及三大银行蓝筹再次大规模write-off的担心下，DJT拽着DJIA领跑于5月下旬kiss goodbye 50 MA日线，其他index唯有舍命相陪。credit crisis向外蔓延，陆续有reginal bank申请破产。CFC余孽IndyMac于6月破产重组后，不到1个月，在“liar's loan”重压之下，宣告关门大吉，被FDIC接管。LEH终于撑不住，裤衩卖光之后，在ER见红，承认“不够钱花”，引起sell off。最嘴硬的GS，声称没有subprime的GS，在6月中再也支撑不住，集资。AIG直接换了掌门。

市场于是恐慌之极。

七月，独立日都跳水，可见市场恐慌。ECB逆潮流升rate妄图控制通胀，引出来的却是EURO/USD直线下调。financial黑幕再次达到顶峰。ABK疯狂增发股票，但还是被踢出S&P500，由此可见花街是如何操纵市场。FNM和FRE此时亦危如累卵，中国神话道7月7日，难重逢，相见如宾，这俩哥们可好，见了17年最低。低处未见底，SEC的Mr. Cox终于作出最傻X之决定。7月14日，rumor说ban short selling on FNM 和 FRE，结果7月15日公布之期，市场大幅低开，SEC banned shortselling on 超过17家金融机构。牛军借此东风，挥军北上，熊军cover，从此一战定江山。

其实几天前已经有迹可循，MAD (Major Distribution Day)之时，虽然adv：dec超过1：9，但是$tran值一直录得大幅小于1的数值，暗示买盘强劲，VIX于7月15亦以达到顶峰。黑色蜡烛表示恐慌情绪被牛军抄底和熊军cover的买盘代替。强劲反转由此而来。

JPM's violent expanding triangle

monthly chart


daily chart



very violent expanding triangle, one of the most violent when it broke the lower support.

2007 July to present, Bear market OE study.

red lines r critical turning pt to market, either at top or bottom of its range. after peak at 2007 july OE, in total 17, 8 of them serviced as short period of turning corner of the market . specially after JUN 2007, only dec 2007 isnt critical.



orange circles r at bottom and lightblues r at top.

from 2007 Aug to 2008 Dec, 17 OEs play so far and they both shows great volatility. made 11 out of 17 OE s at range's top or bottom, at 65%.

break down to 6 of 17 at the bottom of 2 week range, and 5 of 17 s at peak, discrepency swings over 20% from OE week to the week after. worthy to mention is that the market in 2008 rally topped at May OE, dived at Nov OE bottom.




conclusion,OE is for a relatively longer term swing trade entries.

the common sense of precious metals

Platinum is more precious than Gold...

a chart tells everything.



so for longer term, platinum will return to its fair value to gold, despire gold might got hit lower later on this year.

the commodity future market is too complicated to me, so here are some ETFs to pay attention to.

PTM...E-TRACS UBS Long Platinum ETN
PTD...E-TRACS UBS Short Platinum ETN

GLD...SPDR Gold Trust
CEF...Central Fund of Canada Limited (USA)
SLV...iShares Silver Trust

GLD is gold only. CEF contains assest on both gold and silver bullion, the actual gold and silver. so you own both gold and silver. SLV for silver only.


GG, the Goldcorp Inc. (USA), outperforms other big sharks in its sector.




silver and copper has industry applications, value also binds with industry's rhythm.

AMZN

weekly chart


daily chart


possible kiss uptrend goodbye scenaior, slowly building long term short possition or collecting LEAP puts after 60~65 reached seens reasonable..

Get out of T-Bill now!

an article on Barron's about T-Bill is worth to read.

here is how i interpret it:

1, 3 month T-B yield is closing to zero, n 20 year T-B is at its lowest yield after 1940s.

2, if any of these happened, T-B will up again, (1) the economy unexpectedly strengthens in 2009; (2) the dollar weakens significantly;(3) inflation shows signs of reaccelerating.

government trys to stimulate the econmic while wants to seek for over 1 trillion fund for deficit through T-Bill selling. in 2009 alone, goverment need to issue over $100 billion 30 yr bond, maybe as much as $200 billion, rate zero cant last.

3, gold price is hurting T-Bill as well becoz as similar product to fight inflation, gold price is rising in the past two months when T-Bill yield is running the other way. USD is weaken against EURO, that also lowens the attaction of US Treasuries.

4, individual want to short T-Bill, try the Ultrashort Lehman 20+Year Treasury Proshares (TBT) and the smaller Ultrashort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Proshares (PST), or simply sell short of iShares Barclays 20+Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT).

5, only T-Bill has problem is US Treasuries, other Junk Bonds are fine, including municipal bonds, AAA ranking, 30 yr yield at 5.25%; Long-term corporate bonds, BBB, at about 8% yield; Preferred stock now is yielding at 9%+, (BAC and MS).

6, municipal bond isnt the haven becoz of low tax and outspending of public need are suqeezing states and local government, even california is in deep problem now.

corporate bonds also have risk, althought return is nice, such as Ford offered 27% return on its 30 yr bill, but bond investors are having problem to make sure the company's existing or stock price wouldnt significantly come back after the global economic recession.

speaking from personal experiences, corp bond goes higher isnt usually a good sign for that corp, becoz that means the money liquidation in that corp is having problems that they need to sell bonds for salaries or daily business runnings.

7,

For those seeking the safety of Treasuries, the best bet probably is TIPS, or Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. They provide much better yields than ordinary Treasuries unless inflation disappears.

TIPS offer a nominal yield, plus principal indexed to inflation. If inflation is 3% annually in the next 10 years, in line with the historical average, TIPS will return 5.25% (the 2.25% nominal yield plus 3% for the inflation component). There are several ways to invest in TIPS, including through open-end mutual funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities fund (VIPSX), and an ETF, the iShares Barclays US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Fund (TIP).

3X leverage ETF

Direxion launched eight new leveraged ETFs tracking Russell Indexes in Bull and Bear markets

Large Cap .. Bull 3x ... BGU ... Russell 1000
Small Cap .. Bull 3x ... TNA ... Russell 2000
Energy ...... Bull 3x ... ERX ... Russell 1000 Energy
Financial ... Bull 3x ... FAS .... Russell 1000 Financials

Large Cap .. Bear 3x ... BGZ ... Russell 1000
Small Cap .. Bear 3x ... TZA ... Russell 2000
Energy ...... Bear 3x ... ERY ... Russell 1000 Energy
Financial ... Bear 3x ... FAZ ... Russell 1000 Financials


these babes are crazy...only for extremely short term play!

2008熊市风云录 之一

年初，大市熊牛尚且未黑白分明，众土鳖还未成熊军之时，一气把牛牛赶出89 weekly MA，使得5年后世人再闻熊哮，熊市初立。一月，全球股市同步跳水，DJIA录得单日跌幅超过300 pt的就有4天。该时逼得Mr. bernake撕毁盟约，月内狂cut 150 bpt，后其引牛军出击，于一片绝望声中，初次反扑便于月末收复61.8%的失地。二月牛军摆出ascending triangle之阵，缩量上攻。熊军祭出手上暗器，但遑论bad CPI report，financial write-off，皆视作无用之功，惊于牛军神勇，唯有佯作败退。

而后三月，黄沙尘上，熊军借BSC贱卖之风，再临正月大底。届时双底即成，方功成身退，使得随后俩月，市场重归面上平静。三月一战意义不在乎其低，在于暗示前路崎岖。战况上熊军初成，尚不及牛勇，BSC是为独立事件，所以根本无法令熊军有更大作为。

战场宽广，斗转星移，牛军正是于三月初再次祭出sector rotation的法宝支撑市场，得以使出传说中的推土机战术。

从年初爆发全球粮食危险，德国总理竟然道出其中一个荒唐理由是中国人消耗太多粮食？难不成我中华儿女在上海指数跌下熊市后饭量大增？慨叹莫名。于其时日用品炙手可热，大米，玉米等价格狂飙3倍有余，连COST和WMT也部分开始限制供应，邪乎？裙带作用下，得道者fertilizer和dry ship同为升天。crude oil在二月突破2007年高位后，更是大踏步向前，支撑大盘于五月上升至200 daily MA，此乃牛熊重要分界线。Mr. Paulson作为幕后黑手，此时调动所有宣传机器，声称牛军已然全胜。小牛热血沸腾，大有熊军已被清算之感。

五月，BDI指数升至11800，形成双头。fertilizer继续攀升至六月，意图转嫁所有通胀至发展中国家。中国前半年逼签下原材料价格，虚高几倍。货币市场，EUR/USD亦升至1.6历史高位。此时欧洲扬眉吐气，大有美国金融风暴，美元贬值于我何干之意。却不知暗渡陈仓之下，美元已经完成部署，能源货币即将被屠杀。

nasdaq此时应该是最光芒闪耀，QQQQ一个月的跨度内连连跳开4个gap up，风头无俩，NDX更率先带领众多指数冲破200 daily MA，市场亦有微醺。谣言传出，话IT是真正全球性支撑行业，西方不亮自然有东方亮。此番谣传被列入2008最大谎言，同列者有BSC ceo在贱卖前两天的，“我们没有现金流问题。”，Mr. Paulson，“我们现在正处于美国历史上最好的经济环境之一。”，前NY governor Mr.Spitzer，“我没有召妓。”，等。

梅花三枝，书表另一方。

虽则市场表现平静，但是内里闷骚。三月，亦是众多散勇察觉事有不对，开始加入熊军之时。可惜四五月牛军的推土机阵地战中，初生小熊不少被清洗。损失惨重。而正规军中有识之士，早已将枪头调转。LEH第一季度报告有些微盈利，并于四月大举集资，可惜Meredith Whitney女士早说此小人不可信，而David Einhorn更是于年初便已开始建仓空LEH。波澜不惊下，其实已经激流暗涌。CFC所有的坏账和CDO被BAC啃下，BSC的坏资产也让JPM消化不良。dow 30中三大银行蓝筹的C，此时更相顾不暇，于2007年底便已破位，疲态早现，娇喘连连。此时各大小花街部落首领忙于一面声称并无现金问题，一面卖裤裆集资，GS，MS用的leverage高达24和25倍，LEH破天荒用上32倍，埋下令人唏嘘的伏笔。