Market 's revenge?

I cant get a scenario out of my mind. Market will drop in following bottom half of year 2010.

Reasons are samplly followed.

1, health bill passed, financial reform is next on the table, image how those sharks in wall st. like this.

2, it may hurt debt sell,

3, any drop preparation need about half year. 2008 July dipped for preview, but realy start is 2008 Nov.

4, when 2010 mid term election repulican takes back the house, unless ask for money, there are very few chances congress will call for hearings for any market action.

5, low interest rate extend perior will expire.

He is not a fighter, simple is that.

These days, in many aspects, I couldnt help to remind those people he worships.

Traced back 40 years, when a similar young, democrat president open his fight to another most profitable industry at the time, steel. Sent FBI into the most powerful 7 biggest steel companies, had congress investigated monopolisty, untill companies bailed after 2 months. He is JFK.

Also, same JFK, sent 3 people to the moon for doing nothing but jogging, that opened a new era in human history. Sadly, after 40 years, one of his successor closed it. This successor involved himself into a similar fight with another industry giant, banking, we both know, how easy he will bail with mid term election foresighting in 10 months.

Also, Same successor of JFK worships a republican, A.Lincoln, took his train to Washington DC but not his dream, lacked of courage to pursue what seem to be correct to him, either slave right or health care, and cant not convince a victory.

The successor also charted his stock as FDR's famous recover, but without fundamatal support and underlaying game changed dramatically, we dont know how far he can reach.

We named 3 great presidents in american's history, B. Obama, to me, neither red nor blue, is not a fighter, simple is that.

Is it just me?

It starts to look like the market will never drop again, liquidity washs out recession. the worest feeling is ....everything doesnt seem to make sense is making sense now. you see, "wores than expected Non Farm Payroll = economic still in bad shape = more liquidty to the market = market went up today"..

so back March 2009, the bank pressure test is just another lie, while unemployment rate stays over 10% for 3 months straight, the banks should be crashed right now..well, no, Ben got a deep pocket, my friend.

whoever said stock market is the reflect of the economic, slap their faces, please.

XLF's glass roof?

bear's dream gift..






I have made my call for a consolidation drop, only if it is not wores~! $BKX, weaken daily, $USD on the rise, many of SP100 hit glass roof, 10% should be expected, $SPX has no real test before the meaningful 950~990 area.

The very truth of stocks with broad market

"50% of a stock’s price movement can be attributed to the overall movement in the market, 30% to the movement in its sector and only 20% on its own."

---The Latent Statistical Structure of Securities Price Changes

“Of a stock’s move, 31% can be attributed to the general stock market, 12% to the industry influence, and 37% to the influence of other groupings, and the remaining 20% is peculiar to the one stock.”

---(Market and Industry Factors in Stock Price Behaviour, Journal of Business, January 1966)

The very truth of the individual stock with the broad market that Benjamin F. King, a Professor in University of Chicago, wrote to Journal of Business in 1964~1966.

Thanks to Joe the stock chartist.

Quote of today.

Mike Tyson, "Everybody has a plan till they get punched in the face”.

Not much differences between boxing and stock, hum?

the DOLLAR index - $USD

The american dollar index is actually a basket of currencies measures against USD, total 6 currencies but EURO is the most heaviest one since it born, so today's $USD measurement can be broke down as follow:

Euro = 57.6%
Japanese yen = 13.6%
British pound = 11.9%
Canadian dollar = 9.1%
Sweden krona = 4.2%
Swiss franc = 3.6%

actually Swiss franc is a hidden relative to EURO due to Swiss's currency policy, so it is safe to assume EURO weights over 60% on $USD.